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Great Balls of Fire!

The results we're seeing in the retail sector for Black Friday and Cyber Monday are absolutely off the charts! Many, many retailers are up 50% to 150% Year over Year for those days! One long time client of ours had their best day ever on Black Friday...by a factor of TWO! Traffic volume is way up, AOVs are up, conversion rates -- really, really amazing stuff. Let us hope this continues! This has to be driven by:
  1. Improving consumer confidence;
  2. A large degree of pent up demand, particularly for luxury goods;
  3. Increasing, free media coverage of the promotional events surrounding BF and CM; and
  4. The promotions themselves.
The concern is that because of #3 and #4, we may have conditioned consumers to shop earlier, hence these big gains year-over-year are simply cannibalizing sales that would have come later. However, I don't know a retailer that wouldn't make that trade. Indeed, convincing folks to start shopping earlier is widely believed to also get them to spend more. As long as the discounts, shipping deals, marketing expenses and other promotions don't leave the advertisers with nothing to put in the bank -- remember, the lifetime value of Holiday buyers is much, much lower than folks who buy in other seasons -- it looks like we're in for a great Q4. Let's hope so! Are others seeing the same thing?
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